Ukrainian troops are 'probing' Russian lines says Justin Crump
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Expert Justin Crump said Ukraine has got “about 5 to 6 weeks” if they want to launch a successful counterattack in Kherson before Russia holds a referendum in the area. Referring to the Ukrainian forces and their operation in the attempt to retake Kherson, he explained Ukraine is now performing “shaping operations” which allow its troops to “probe Russian lines” in a bid to break their positions, and make it “very hard” for Moscow’s forces to hold on to the region.
The Sibyllic CEO told Times Radio: “Ukraine seems to be doing what we call shaping operations.
“They’re probing Russian Iines and breaking up the Russian positions by looking for areas where they can make it very hard for the Russians to communicate and reinforce.
“They’re doing that slowly.
“I think the aim will be to do something there by September when the Russians are planning to hold a referendum in the Oblast.
“I think Ukraine has got about 5 or 6 weeks if it wants to have a real effect.
“Everything they are doing at the moment is about getting ready for that in the coming weeks.
“I think they’ll just steadily apply more and more pressure.”
Times Radio host Aasmah Mir asked: “What is happening in Kherson?
Ukrainian troops are 'probing' Russian lines says Justin Crump
“The Ukrainians are trying to retake the city, how might they do that?”
Mr Crump responded: “Slowly and steadily and possibly successfully.
“If you look at what Ukraine is doing at the moment, if you think of Kherson itself, it’s on Dnieper River and the Russian troops are on the far bank of that river in Ukrainian territory.
“Ukraine having damaged the bridges, the three bridges that Russia relies on to remain in place in the far bank, that’s a real challenge for Russia to hold onto that area.
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“I think in the long term, when it’s so difficult to get supplies into the area, so difficult to maintain troops there, the troops will be aware the retreat isn’t exactly easy.”
Referring to Russia and its troops, he added: “At leadership level, [Russia] retains significant will.
“At popular level, there’s a degree of pretty strong support as well through what Russia’s embarked on.
“That’s a tightrope operation at this point.
“In terms of firepower, they have lots of old firepower.
“They’re using unguided or semi-guided surface to air missiles in a ground rod.
“I think the quality of what they’re throwing, both in terms of people and equipment as well as concepts, is all diminishing.
“I think the stage is set for an increasingly tense and possibly nasty confrontation until the winter at least at the moment”.
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