Politics

Scotland election polls and odds: Where do parties stand less than a week from election?

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Scottish voters will head to the polls on Thursday, May 6, to cast their ballots on the 129 Members of Scottish Parliament (MSPs) across 73 constituencies they want to represent them for the next five years. Candidates from a range of political parties have worked tirelessly in the run-up to election day and opinion polls have changed as the race draws ever closer.

This year has been tumultuous for Scottish Parliamentary politics with the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon facing accusations of ministerial misconduct and a huge focus on key issues including Covid recovery and an independence vote.

There are a total of 25 parties running in the Holyrood election.

This means Scottish voters will have a minimum of 15 choices on the regional lists.

Small parties have run with degrees of success in the past and with the former first minister Alex Salmond launching his own party and running in the race, many pundits will be watching to see how much support he garners.

Throughout the election campaign, none of the main parties has developed an outright lead ahead of competitors, pitching them as a discernible guaranteed winner.

Instead, there has been a range of poll results, with an outright majority a very rare occurrence.

A poll published on Express.co.uk asked readers which political leader they felt won the Scottish election debate on April 27.

The poll revealed Express.co.uk believed for the third time Douglas Ross undertook the strongest performance during the debate with 69 percent of voters, or 1,781 people, supporting him out of the total 2,591 people.

But other polls questioning voting intention have not seen Mr Ross or the Conservatives come out on top.

The latest poll from Savanta Comres of 1,001 people pitched Nicole Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party in prime position winning 45 percent of the vote.

The poll conducted from April 23 to 27 saw the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour Party fall into joint second place with 23 percent, followed by the Liberal Democrats with seven percent.

The Savanta ComRes poll published for The Scotsman predicted SNP would lose two seats compared to its 2016 performance, falling four seats short of an outright majority.

In terms of regional performance, the SNP dropped two percentage points to 36 percent, meaning the party is expected to remain the dominant force in Holyrood with 61 seats.

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Another recent poll also showed the SNP likely to come out on top with the most support but fall short of an overall majority.

The Scot Goes Pop/Panelbase poll saw the SNP win 45 percent of the vote, with Labour coming in second place with 22 percent.

The Conservatives came in third place with 20 percent of the vote, followed by the Liberal Democrats and Green Party with eight and four percent respectively, according to the poll of 1,075 adults, conducted from April 21 to 26.

Bookmaker Ladbrokes also predicts an outright majority for the SNP unlikely at 10/11 odds, the same as the odds for a majority.

In terms of winning the most seats, the odds are as follows:

  • SNP – 1/100
  • Conservatives – 33/1
  • Labour – 50/1
  • Lib Dems – 100/1
  • Greens – 200/1
  • Reform UK – 200/1.

Alex Apati of Ladbrokes said: “It’s going to take something pretty spectacular to pip the SNP to the post, but at the moment it’s essentially the flip of a coin as to whether or not there’ll be a Majority.”

The bookmaker also has odds at 1/6 Ms Sturgeon will still be First Minister on January 1 next year, while the odds of her not retaining that post are at 7/2 odds.

Bookmaker Coral makes it 4/1 odds for a Scottish Independence referendum to take place in 2022, while it is 12/1 odds for one to occur in 2021.

If a vote took place, the bookmaker believes independence is the likely outcome at 8/11 odds, while is it 11/10 for the same result as before to come out.

Coral spokesman John Hill said: “The betting suggests a Scottish independence referendum is unlikely to take place any time in the near future”

“What is interesting though, if a vote did take place, we make it odds-on for Scotland to vote ‘Yes’ for independence this time around.”

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