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Americans have five days left to vote in the US election this year, as Donald Trump and Joe Biden gear up for the final ballot on November 3. Millions of people have already taken to the polls for early voting, besting turnout numbers set in 2016, as officials expand options for people amid the coronavirus pandemic. As such, this year’s data differs from the last election cycle, but the results may ring familiar for many people.
Which Presidential candidate is winning?
President Trump and Mr Biden have battled for the hearts of Americans for months now, but the polls have not indicated an even fight.
The Democratic nominee has held a concrete lead for his entire campaign, according to trusted statistical analysis.
But in the US election, there are two types of win, and the next president only needs to secure one.
FiveThirtyEight, which collects and evaluates polls across the country, found public favour currently gravitates towards Mr Biden.
He has held at least a four-point lead over the last seven months and is currently ahead by nine percent.
Mr Biden has a prospective 51.8 percent of the vote, while the President has 42.9.
The data shows the popular vote stacked in Mr Biden’s favour but doesn’t necessarily indicate he will win the presidency.
Who is predicted to win the election?
Mr Biden has the most prospective votes so far, but the data from FiveThirtyEight doesn’t indicate their origin.
To win the election, candidates need control of the states with the highest Electoral College value, and a majority share of the 538 votes.
Each of the US’ 50 states has Electoral College votes which correspond with its seats in the House of Representatives.
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While the votes should represent this number, some states have more sway than others.
For example, California has a total of 53 electors representing 746,415 people, while Wyoming has just one for a population of 577,737.
As such, one candidate can win the states with the most voters and least electors, securing the popular vote but not vital Electoral College majority.
Using predictions around the “battleground” high-value states in 2020 reveals a potential Electoral College win for Mr Biden as well.
According to a poll by RealClearPolitics for the Financial Times, Mr Biden is on track to collect the most Electoral College votes.
They have assigned him 279 of the 270 required to win the presidency, with 207 votes from solid Democrat states, and another 72 from Democrat-leaning states.
Mr Trump, on the other hand, has just 123, with 83 from solidly Republican states and 42 from Republican-leaning states.
RealClearPolitics has the remaining 134 votes as a “toss-up”, meaning they could go either way.
But some of the most valuable states on the list leaned Republican earlier in the election, showing a growing Democrat influence.
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