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Donald Trump vs Joe Biden odds – swingometer predicts who will win US Election 2020

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Donald Trump was first elected as the US President four years ago and is now battling to win a second term against rival Joe Biden. Americans will head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3 to elect their next leader. Mr Trump triumphed in the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote, so many experts claim it is still too early to predict the outcome of the coming election. But Express.co.uk has exclusive data which reveals exactly what the bookies think will happen come polling day, with analysis on every key state in this US Election campaign.

According to the latest polls undertaken in October on the upcoming US election, Mr Biden has a more than 50 percent chance of winning the upcoming election.

On average, Mr Biden is ahead by around 52.5 percent, according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight. By comparison, Mr Trump is trailing by 41.8 percent.

The latest poll, which was published by USC Dornsife and conducted from October 5 to 18 polling 5,557 adults, showed Mr Biden was leading by 54 percent compared to Mr Trump’s 42 percent, giving Mr Biden a 12-point lead.

Republicans have won the US state in every presidential election since 1952, except in 1996. Currently, the latest polling averages indicate Mr Biden has a 49 percent lead, against Mr Trump’s 45.5 percent.

Bookmakers Betfair launched a swingometer tool last month as the presidential race heated up.

At the time of the launch, a Betfair spokesman said: “Already there is huge interest in who will be the next US President on Betfair Exchange, with over £70 million wagered on the betting market.

“Joe Biden is the current favourite at evens, however almost 60% of the money has been bet on Donald Trump, who briefly went favourite yesterday for the first time in three months, and in the past 24 hours his odds have gone out to 21/20.”

He added: “Already this year we have seen some huge swings in the betting market, back in February, Joe Biden was 100/1 (just a 1 percent chance) to become the next US President, but as the months went on, the odds shifted in his favour, in August he had a 60 percent chance of winning, and since then his chances have decreased and it’s too tight to call.”

And the bookmaker has now revealed exclusive data to Express.co.uk on just how divisive this vote really is.

With just two weeks to go, Trump has more than double the chance of winning than he had at this stage in 2016 when he was a odds of 11/2 (15%) to beat Hillary Clinton (2/11, 85%) 14 days before the vote.

Mr Trump’s odds shortened this week and although Mr Biden is still 1.68 to win, Mr Trump now has a 40 percent chance of winning a second term. This compares to 31 percent for a week ago.

Mr Biden has a 60 percent chance of winning the White House on November 3, at the time of writing.

You can see the interactive swingometer below, which reveals the latest data – in real time – about how the public thinks the vote will go.

And with time running out in the US Presidential race, Betfair has made its prediction on what will happen in Washington come polling day.

Betfair spokesperson Darren Hughes told Express.co.uk: “The race is on for the White House and at odds of 8/13 (62% implied probability) Joe Biden is the clear front-runner heading into the final turn with two weeks to go.

“Trump has been edging closer in the past week, seeing his odds move from 9/4 (31% chance) to 6/4 (40% chance) since last Monday, however it is Biden that remains the strong favourite to win the election.

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He continued: “Since his odds were as high as 99/1 in March, when it looked unlikely he would even win the primaries, Biden has come in for steady support, and seen his odds shorten dramatically. Apart from a brief period in August, after both party conventions, Biden has remained the clear-cut favourite from the incumbent Trump.

“From the odds on the Betfair Exchange, there are 11 clear swing states – determined by odds changes since the start of 2020. Swing states are states that have historically swung between voting Democrat and Republican, with no discernible pattern. Unlike states like Texas and New York, which are traditional Republican and Democrat states, swing states are often unpredictable, and therefore are often viewed as the most important states in an election.

“Of those, Florida is the closest in the betting. After winning it in 2016, the Sunshine State is a hugely important battleground for Trump to triumph on November 3. The Republicans have been as short as 10/11, in May, and as big as 6/4, in September, to win there, but it appears both Trump and Biden are now neck and neck with the odds fluctuating either side of evens, which leaves just a coin flip on who will take it in 2020.”

Early voting for the US election kicked off today in the battleground state of Florida, which has been a reliable bellwether in recent elections.

The US state has a diverse population but tends to be conservative-leaning with a high proportion of older voters. In 2004 and 2016, the seat was won by Republicans, while it was won by the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

In the crucial swing state, the parties can’t be separated by Betfair, with each candidate 20/21 (51%) to win where Trump won in 2016 by just 1% of the vote and where 13 of the last 14 US Presidents have come out on top.

Mr Trump and Mr Biden are currently preparing for their last presidential debate due to take place on Thursday.

With just 15 days left until election day, Mr Trump is spending the time on the campaign trail.

On Monday, Mr Trump headed to Arizona which he won by three percent in the last election.

Republicans have won the US state in every presidential election since 1952, except in 1996.

Today the Republican candidate is heading to Pennsylvania, where Betfair has odds on a GOP victory at 9/4, with the Dems on 2/5. The bookmaker revealed the Democrats briefly drifted to 4/6 in August, but have been consistent since then – “should go blue.”

Wednesday night will see the President in Gastonia, North Carolina, a key target for Mr Trump where Betfair has the GOP at 6/5 and the Dems on 4/5.

The odds suggest the rivals were evens apiece all summer, occasionally flip-flopping with both being slight favourites at differing times. “In August, Dems went 8/11, but drifted right out to 5/4 in mid-September,” Betfair added. “Went 4/5 overnight in early October and haven’t moved since.”

And on Thursday, Biden and Trump will go head to head in the next televised debate, which is being held in Nashville, Tennessee – a solid red seat with the GOP seeing staggering odds of 1/25.

Betfair’s Darren Hughes added: “Another state Trump has been targeting in recent weeks is Nevada. Despite turning blue for the past three elections, Trump has been looking to use the slump in tourism to generate economic support in the Silver State.

“The state looked a banker for Biden with the Democrats at odds of 1/5 in July and 1/4 only last week, but Republican support coming into odds of 5/2 has seen the Democrats odds worsen to 2/5.

“North Carolina is also being closely contested on the east coast. Traditionally Republican and with 15 electoral college votes up for grabs, Biden has turned the tables and is currently edging the betting with Democrats as the 4/5 favourites. NC is simply a state Trump can’t afford to lose.

“Based on the current state betting odds, we can estimate Joe Biden will walk away with the keys to White House on November 3 with close to 300 seats, more than the 270 he needs to win.

“Trump could find victories in Florida and North Carolina, two of his key targets for re-election, but even winning here wouldn’t be enough to close the gap – with Biden sweeping up the traditionally Democratic coastal states.”

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