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Joe Biden on brink as Donald Trump landslide on cards after ‘voting intentions unmasked’

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The Democrat candidate has been ahead of Mr Trump in most national polls since the start of the year, and hovered at around 50 percent in recent months while boasting a 10-point lead on occasions. The BBC’s poll of polls puts the former Vice President on 52 percent while the President sits on 42 percent. This comes after a CNN poll released this week has Mr Biden a remarkable 16 points ahead of his Republican opponent. Not only does the survey put President Trump in a perilous position, but nine out of 10 people polled said their mind was made up ahead of election day.

While the former Vice President’s position looks increasingly commanding, a Fox News poll could offer encouragement for President Trump – meaning his route to a dream election landslide could still be open.

A growing number of Americans think their neighbours support Mr Trump over Mr Biden in the upcoming election, according to the survey.

It found that 49 percent thought their neighbours were supporting Mr Trump for president.

By comparison, 38 percent of respondents said they thought their neighbours were backing the Biden campaign.

The 11-point differential marked an uptick from August, when 39 percent of respondents said they thought Mr Trump had their neighbours’ support and 34 percent felt Mr Biden was their pick.

A recent study also makes for grim reading for Mr Biden and the Democrats.

Published in August, it found that Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question about their preference for president in the 2020 election.

This could raise doubts over poor polling performances for President Trump.

Some 11.7 percent of Republicans and 10.5 percent of independents said they would not give their true opinion.

This was the case for just 5.4 percent of Democrats, according to the study by CloudResearch.

Among the reasons they gave was that “it’s dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint,” according to the study’s chief research officer.

Political party preference was the only characteristic that correlated consistently with reluctance to share presidential preference, they added.

The question of whether “shy Trump” voters were undercounted in polls before the 2016 election was looked into by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

They found: “Some Trump voters who participated in pre-election polls did not reveal themselves as Trump voters until after the election, and they outnumbered late-revealing Clinton voters.

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“This finding could be attributable to either late deciding or misreporting (the so-called Shy Trump effect) in the pre-election polls.”

The study added that, typically, “those who admit changing their minds more or less wash out, breaking about evenly between the Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate”.

But, in 2016, people who changed their answers when called back after the election had voted for Mr Trump by a 16-percentage-point margin.

The AAPOR study said evidence for a “Shy Trump” effect isn’t conclusive.

Nevertheless, Mr Biden will be weary that his big lead could be reduced if polling behaves in a similar fashion as the 2016 campaign, where Mrs Clinton led for most of the race before slumping to defeat.

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